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April 2, 2005

A KMT PR Coup? 國民黨，高招！

The KMT, after years of being forced to be reactive as it faced internal divisions and the pan-Greens nudged the province closer to separation, seems to have turned the tables and taken the initiative with its mainland junket. Many in Taiwan are happy to see something other than the usual CCP vs. pan-Greens standoff, as suggested by two opinion polls:

There were three questions related purely to the junket in this poll from the ERA Survey Research Center (too lazy to translate the rest, though interesting to read):

Recently, KMT vice chairman Chiang Ping-kun organized a group to visit the mainland, and discussed the development of cross-Strait relations and economic exchanges with mainland officials. Do you think that doing this is helpful or not towards protecting the interests of Taiwan?
Very helpful: 15.9%, Slightly helpful: 31.6%, Slightly unhelpful: 13.4%, Very unhelpful: 22.5%, Don't know/Didn't respond: 16.7%

Referring to KMT vice-chairman Chiang Ping-kun's visit to the mainland, the US government says that it is welcome as long as it helps cross-Strait dialogue. President Chen Shui-bian, however, criticized it as only KMT-CCP co-operation. Overall, do you think that Chiang's visit to the mainland on behalf of the KMT is helpful or not towards cross-Strait dialogue and relieving cross-Strait relations?
Very helpful: 17.1%, Slightly helpful: 34.8%, Slightly unhelpful: 13.3%, Very unhelpful: 22.3%, Don't know/Didn't respond: 12.5%

If KMT chairman Lien Chan visits the mainland, and sign a peace agreement with PRC officials, do you support this or not?
Strongly support: 16.7%, Slightly support: 20.1%, Slightly oppose: 13.5%, Strongly oppose: 32.6%, Don't know/Didn't respond: 17.1%

The ERA poll was conducted by telephone using random digit dialing in twenty-three counties and cities in Taiwan, between 6:20 PM and 10:00 PM on 30 and 31 March 2005. Sample size was 987, with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Results are weighted for sex, place of residence, age, and other factors.

Another poll was conducted by the China Times. Doesn't tell as much of the nitty-gritty of the surveying though.

37% agree with the KMT that Chiang's visit helped to supplant confrontation with negotiations and improve cross-Strait relations.
19% agree with the pan-Greens and consider the visit as KMT-CCP co-operation, and is an unhealthy influence on Taiwan's future development.
9% do not agree with both the pan-Blues and the pan-Greens.
35% have no opinion.
Of all KMT supporters, 80% agree the KMT position. Of all DPP supporters, 60% agree with the DPP position. Of those who do not support either camp, 38% agree with the KMT's position, and 14% agree with the pan-Greens.

42% support a visit by Lien Chan to the mainland.
28% oppose such a visit.
30% have no opinion.
Of all KMT supporters, 80% support Lien's visit, while only 10% oppose. Of all DPP supporters, 65% oppose the visit, but 20% have no objections. Of those who do not support either camp, 40% support Lien's visit, and 25% oppose.

The China Times poll was conducted in the evenings of 1 and 2 April 2005. Subjects were randomly selected from Taiwan residential telephone directories. 951 people were successfull surveyed. Results are weighted by sex, age, and geography, according to Taiwan's demographic structure. Margin of error is +/-3.2%, 19 times out of 20.

It appears that with the exception of a concrete peace agreement signed between the KMT and CCP, the Taiwanese public is leaning positively towards the KMT's recent actions. In light of the recent uproar over the PRC's Anti-Secession Law, the pan-Greens should be riding a wave of popular support, so this is quite the coup for the KMT and the mainland authorities.

國民黨訪問大陸這一著，看來已被台灣同胞認同。年代電視及中時電子報的兩個民意調查都顯示民眾支持這次訪問。國民黨也靠這一招扭轉多年來因為內部分裂而被綠營打進被動者的局面，更化解了綠營靠326遊行帶來的民意上漲。

Posted by Kelvin at April 2, 2005 10:10 PM

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Tracked on April 25, 2005 7:11 PM

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